Cape independence is the political movement to make the Western Cape province, and often other regions of the Eastern and Northern Cape provinces, an independent state from the rest of South Africa.
This market will resolve affirmatively if a political party, group, or referendum representing a plurality of the residents of the Cape (or any substantial subset of territory therein, such as Cape Town) declare their independence from South Africa before the beginning of 2025.
I don't understand why this is so low. Surely, the probability of Cape independence is 10-20%? Cape independence is already in the Overton window (albeit on the fringes) and, according to polls, is supported by the majority of the population in the Western Cape.
Consider this scenario (or something similar) which I'm sure is at least 10% probable:
In the 2024 South Africa general election the ANC does not win a majority. The ANC then forms a coalition with radical leftists like the EFF and/or MK party who demand radical socialist reforms. This spooks foreign investors causing capital flight which tanks the economy. The economic crash causes people in the Western Cape to demand from the WC government a referendum on Cape Independence, which due to the mismanagement in government, is highly likely to come out in favour of independence.