🏅 Top traders

I talked with him about Manifold at vibecamp and it seemed very unlikely. Made good profit here.

@SneakySly What a coward. He must worry about looking bad. He should be thinking about it as a place to ask questions, not a place to forecast.

Was there a particular reason ?

@dionisos He said he didn’t see the use.

@SneakySly So he is a fake expert on prediction markets. What a loser.

@BTE In hindsight I should have obviously gone with NO, since Robin Hanson is generally not impressed with these types of projects. As he details in this post on overcoming bias, he believes the main obstacle to prediction markets is finding "information buyers", with which manifold.makets doesn't really help.

I was blinded by how fun I find gambling on this sight. I was like "this is so much fun, surely Robin Hanson will join!"

How else can he participate in such intellectually illuminating markets a la /Aella/has-robin-hanson-ever-pooped-himsel ?