Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
➕
Plus
11
Ṁ3042
2038
16%
chance

He must publicly state something like "I am a X" where X is the name of a religious or mystical group. It doesn't have to be large but it has to be that kind of group

Counts

  • I am a Christian

  • I am a daoist

  • I believe in Mormonism

  • I have started a new religious group which I lead, the reincarnationizers

  • I am a believer in grand epivosism

Wouldn't count

  • I am an anarchist

  • I am a millennial

  • I am a dualist

  • I am a simulationist

  • I favor daoism

  • I admire Christianity

  • I prefer Hinduism

  • I abhor Buddhism

  • I believe in social darwinism

We will evaluate based on reason falling back to the best public AI/LLM, asking it to estimate probabilities and resolving yes if a repeated set of fair tests results in scores above fifty percent. We will give it the contents of this claim but not the judging rules or the info that it's a bet.

We will include all relevant written info from the time around the claim, with dates, up to a week before and after. Attempts at resolution may be made whenever, I will judge them. If it's a trick or a manipulation it won't count. We're attempting to judge what is "actually happening" by his practice and stated beliefs. Video, audio, text, etc are available as evidence.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Will the Pope convert to Buddhism by mid 2038?

bought Ṁ500 NO

NVM :-)

@jim let's get those percentages up 😁

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