He must publicly state something like "I am a X" where X is the name of a religious or mystical group. It doesn't have to be large but it has to be that kind of group
Counts
I am a Christian
I am a daoist
I believe in Mormonism
I have started a new religious group which I lead, the reincarnationizers
I am a believer in grand epivosism
Wouldn't count
I am an anarchist
I am a millennial
I am a dualist
I am a simulationist
I favor daoism
I admire Christianity
I prefer Hinduism
I abhor Buddhism
I believe in social darwinism
We will evaluate based on reason falling back to the best public AI/LLM, asking it to estimate probabilities and resolving yes if a repeated set of fair tests results in scores above fifty percent. We will give it the contents of this claim but not the judging rules or the info that it's a bet.
We will include all relevant written info from the time around the claim, with dates, up to a week before and after. Attempts at resolution may be made whenever, I will judge them. If it's a trick or a manipulation it won't count. We're attempting to judge what is "actually happening" by his practice and stated beliefs. Video, audio, text, etc are available as evidence.
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
Will the Pope convert to Buddhism by mid 2038?
NVM :-)