Will Manifold be significantly better calibrated on September 1st?
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1.7kṀ8918resolved Sep 2
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Right now, using the current trade sampling methodology on our calibration page, Manifold has a Brier score of ~0.172.
Criteria: On or about September 1st 2023, I will programmatically draw 10 samples. If 5 or more out of 10 samples have Brier scores less than 0.17, this market resolves YES. (Results only valid using the current methodology. If we switch to using something else or I have no easy way to calculate the Brier score using the same approach, this resolves N/A.)
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