Resolves according to my subjective opinion on whether Manifold was better at the end of July than the start.
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their 'vibes-based' resolution will be guided by the following factors:
Admin decisions have the largest short-term impact.
Site 'fun' is a key factor. A significant drop in active users or site activity would strongly lean towards a NO resolution.
Quality of markets is considered, but is unlikely to be a deciding factor within a single month.
Inaccuracy of market probabilities is unlikely to influence the outcome.
1,000For reference, here's how I would have resolved this for previous months:
January 2024: NO
February 2024: NO
March 2024: YES
April 2024: NO
May 2024: NO
June 2024: NO
July 2024: YES
August 2024: NO
September 2024: YES
October 2024: YES
November 2024: NO
December 2024: YES
January 2025: YES
February 2025: YES
March 2025: YES
April 2025: NO
May 2025: NO
June 2025: NO
@evan What are your criteria? Acitvity? Quality of markets? Admin decisions? Precieved accuracy of market probabilities? Fun?
@ProjectVictory This is kind of vibes-based. I think admin decisions have the biggest short-term impact. If a change happens and I feel like the site is better/more fun to use as a result, that definitely improves the chance of a Yes resolution (and vice versa for bad changes). Quality of markets is important, but significant changes in overall market quality within one month are usually not noticeable. Inaccuracy of market probabilities has been a problem for a long time and is counteracted somewhat by easier profits on inaccurate markets, so I doubt it will affect the resolution here, although admin actions could affect this (for example, if some economy change is implemented and this causes lots of long-term markets to become inaccurate, I would consider that a bad thing and would be more likely to resolve No). Fun is very subjective but definitely important to my perception of how "good" the site is. The number of users contributes a lot to this, I think. It seems like Manifold's long-term decline in activity has stopped in 2025, but if the number of active users decreases significantly in July, resulting in fewer new markets and site activity, this would also be a bad thing for fun on Manifold and would increase the chance of a No resolution.