Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025?
4
64
Ṁ67Ṁ130
Dec 31
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves on my judgement of reporting by NY Times, BBC, or other reputable news source.
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Looks like phishing scams reported to the FBI in 2020 totaled $54M in losses: https://www.ic3.gov/Media/PDF/AnnualReport/2020_IC3Report.pdf
Most of my credence here is on the very large scale of phishing in general, rather than the effectiveness of LLM-assisted spear phishing in particular.
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