Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025? | Manifold

Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025?

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Dec 31

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Resolves on my judgement of reporting by NY Times, BBC, or other reputable news source.

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Looks like phishing scams reported to the FBI in 2020 totaled $54M in losses: https://www.ic3.gov/Media/PDF/AnnualReport/2020_IC3Report.pdf

Most of my credence here is on the very large scale of phishing in general, rather than the effectiveness of LLM-assisted spear phishing in particular.

Would you count money companies spend with their solution/technology providers to get the 'defend against llm email attacks!' modules? 😅

@Abraxas no, exclusively scams or industrial espionage

@RyanKidd haha well that's much less certain than, I'll still bet yes though.

lol, okay so this doesn't mean using a spear to kill fish that live in the water?

@ian oops, misspelled

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