Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $5 trillion on January 1st, 2033, as measured by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List. The resolution will use the official net worth figure published by either source on that date. If both sources differ, the market resolves YES only if both sources report a net worth above $5 trillion.

Background

As of January 2026, Musk's net worth is estimated between $690-852 billion, making him the world's richest person. His wealth is primarily driven by a $366 billion stake in SpaceX, valued at $800 billion, and significant holdings in Tesla and xAI. Recent forecasts suggest Musk could reach trillionaire status by 2027, with a potential $1.5 trillion SpaceX IPO potentially accelerating this timeline.

Considerations

Reaching $5 trillion would require Musk's wealth to grow roughly 6-7x from current levels over six years. While his wealth has grown by a factor of nearly 30 since 2020, such explosive growth depends on continued valuations of private companies (SpaceX, xAI) and Tesla stock performance. Musk's net worth fluctuates dramatically with stock prices and private company valuations, introducing significant volatility. The $5 trillion threshold is substantially higher than any individual's current wealth and would represent an unprecedented concentration of personal wealth.

This description was generated by AI.