In real dollars. (2022)
See also:
1,000People are also trading
Hi @IsaacKing what sources are used to calculate the net worth? I found this Forbes article which says that Musk's net worth decreased to "only" 147 billion on Dec 31, 2022, right after this market was made and right after forbes released their richest persons list for 2022
@spiderduckpig this should have been resolved in December 2022. It was slightly above 170 on the 13th, then below 140 on the 23rd, according to Wikipedia history.
@EliG I agree, I suspect this market was created due to the TSLA stock slide happening in mid-December, and it slid so much that his net worth fell below 150bn by the end of December
@spiderduckpig in my limited experience of interacting with him, Isaac doesn't read the comments and doesn't resolve his markets (I guess he created too many). You probably have to tag mods.
IMO, this market should be resolved N/A, since most traders didn't check the creation date and assumed they have to take only future events into account.
@spiderduckpig the market should have been resolved shortly after its creation. But given that it was not and that it has been interpreted, for nearly four years, as forecasting Musk’s wealth since then, the common reading should prevail. I understand you’re having fun tracking down old mispriced markets, but you should request clarification before betting a lot of mana and then complaining if the outcome doesn’t go your way.
@MachiNi I hope the plain English reading would be common enough. Besides, the price stayed >50% through 2023 and much of 2024. It wasn't until 2025 that traders persistently pushed it down. I hope we can agree that some traders reversing a price after two years should not affect the meaning of the written description.
@spiderduckpig isaac generally prefers to have control over his markets, and while he isn't always super responsive, on an ambiguous case like this he is likely to be given substantial leeway on how this is handled.
so i'm removing this from the mod queue—i would try to ping isaac, and if you are unable after multiple attempts and given a month or so then maybe eventually mods will step in (not sure). but generally, market with many traders + long time creator -> the bar for mods to step in is extremely high (at least imo). so "i have interpreted the description in a way that previous traders missed" is exactly the sort of case where mods are unlikely to intervene unless it becomes clear there is no hope of summoning the original creator to opine. (isaac was active 10d ago so there's no evidence of that atm)
@EliG I’m not following. The only event that could have triggered a YES resolution happened shortly after market creation. Subsequent market movements basically track the probability that it would resolve yes.
Are these also death markets, or does death resolve NA? Or maybe No because it didn't fall while he was alive?
At this point, he could be comatose and this would resolve yes. Arguably that would only reduce uncertainty.