What type of candidate will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
8
125Ṁ196
2028
44%
Establishment Politician (examples: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom)
10%
Progressive Populist (examples: Bernie Sanders, AOC, Ro Khanna)
16%
Complete Outsider (examples: Mark Cuban, Stephen A. Smith, John Stewart)
2%
Ex-Republican (example: Michael Bloomberg, Liz Cheney)
27%
Other

This market asks what type of candidate will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The options are:

  1. Establishment Politician: A current or former elected official with strong ties to the Democratic Party establishment (examples: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom)

  2. Progressive Populist: A candidate who explicitly runs on a progressive populist platform challenging corporate power and economic inequality (examples: Bernie Sanders, AOC, Ro Khanna)

  3. Complete Outsider: Someone who has never held elected office (examples: Mark Cuban, Stephen A. Smith, John Stewart)

Resolution will be based on how the eventual nominee is widely characterized by mainstream political analysts and their own campaign positioning at the time of securing the nomination. If the complete outsider happens to runs on a progressive populist platform, market will resolve Complete Outsider.

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