Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the name of the vehicle that performs the next orbital or suborbital launch from the listed options. The market applies only to launches on or following 04/30/2026 8:00 am EDT and excludes all launches of any of these vehicles prior to this date and time.

A launch is defined as the vehicle lifting off from the launch pad. If multiple listed vehicles launch on the same day, the vehicle that launches earliest resolves the market.

Verification will be based on official mission reports from relevant space agencies to the launch such as NASA/SpaceX for Starship or ESA/ArianeSpace for Ariane 6. Additionally, spaceflight news trackers such as Spaceflight Now or Next Spaceflight can be used as sources for resolution. If somehow they are all indefinitely delayed (Kessler Syndrome?) I’ll consider resolving N/A.