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MANIFOLD
What % of Starship Stages will be caught during flights 16-25 (10 flights)
3
Ṁ1kṀ71
2028
52%
chance

Market resolves to the ratio of stages caught during Starship flights for Starship flights 16-25 over stages flown.

Each flight has a possible two stages to be caught so in total over the course of 10 flights theres a maximum of 20 catch attempts. A successful catch attempt will be defined as not only a catch that stops the motion of the stage but one that does not catastrophically damage the stage in the process or otherwise render it apparently beyond repair. See starship SN10 (not so successful landing).

Each flight can have one of the following results.

  • 0/2 no catches were successful or they were not attempted

  • 1/2 only the booster or ship was successfully caught and recovered

  • 2/2 both staged successfully caught and recovered

Flight 15 results as an example:

  • coming soon

The market will resolve as the percentage of the sum of these results over the ten flights.

Starships may spend extended time in space. Any starship that exceeds its expected lifetime in space due to unforeseen issues or otherwise has no statement from SpaceX will be recovered will not be required to return to earth for resolution of the market.

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To clarify, what if SpaceX flies flights 16-18 as expected, then launches a Starship in disposable mode, & does not number it 19? Say this Starship is launched to Lunar orbit, with no intent of returning to Earth. Would that count as 2 non-catches among the 20 opportunities?