How Many Engine Burns will FAIL on Starship Flight 10?
28
10kṀ62k
resolved Aug 28
100%61%
1-3 FAIL
1.0%
0 FAIL
31%
4-9 FAIL
4%
10-19 FAIL
1.5%
20-33 FAIL
0.9%
34+ FAIL

I am defining a Successful Engine Burn as a planned engine firing that when commanded ignites and completes the full duration of its burn as intended.

A failure of an engine burn is whenever the engine fails to the ignite when otherwise stated to have been intended to ignite or whenever an engine fails to completes its burn regardless as to why.

Engine failures include when a stage is destroyed before completion of the burn as well any instance where the intended action is not completed successfully (a booster catch for example).

For example Flights 7 & 8 spun out of control and exploded before reaching the target trajectory.

Current understanding of planned burns:

1st Stage Burn 33

Boost Back Burn 10

*1st Stage Landing 13 (12?)

2nd Stage Burn 6

*Orbital Maneuver 1 (?)

Flip and landing 3

*This number has changed previously and may stray from current number.

As of 08-08-2025 I am not aware of a flight plan being available given directly from SpaceX.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns and good luck!

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https://youtu.be/O0lhaV4Qryw?si=6dVhj3HOtQrJWwyx

Beautiful new footage confirms three good engines on landing.

Not original post as I don't have X.

So here is my interpretation.

1 engine failed during 1st stage burn.

The same engine did not ignite during boostback as well as during splashdown.

This is of course assuming i am understanding their flight plan correctly please let me know if i am not.

Later, during starship landing burn, i heard the call out for 3 engines from the announcer but there was no indicator and it was a bit fuzzy to see from the buoy cam but i feel confident to say this was 3 good engines intentionally stepped down to two similar to the past.

In total to my count that is 3 failed engine burns. Please let me know if you think i have misinterpreted their flight plans and you disagree on the count.

Thank you!

@RyanTyznar i think ill allow a day or so for rebuttal if theres no serious differences in interpretation then ill resolve the market.

edit: miscounting

@EvanDaniel I think the one engine counts three times for 1st stage burn, boost back and landing?

@dp9000 Hmmm I think you're right. Momentary reading comprehension lapse on my part. So could be 3-7 inclusive, still waiting on the on-orbit relight and 3 for landing.

@dp9000 thanks dp spot on as usual

SpaceX plans to shut down a booster engine mid-burn to simulate a failure on landing. Will that count?

@MaxA as it is planned it will not count

sold Ṁ50 YES

Resolution criteria is too unclear for me. If it [s]explodes[/s] rapidly disassembles, that would mean 34+ failed?

@Bandors If the full stack explodes during the first stage burn then yes. Thanks for the question i believe i forgot to clarify that any engines intended to ignite but dont due to failure of any kind counts as a failed engine burn.

@Bandors ive tried a similar market in the past and had similar struggles with clarity i really dont know how to word this correctly as the subject matter, “engine burns” doesnt have a well agreed upon name.

I don't think they are planning a 'landing' of the second stage for this flight, at least ... not intact. But I could be mistaken.

@BorisBartlog Its not strictly relevant to the market but yea i meant a controlled splashdown really. Unless you are saying they are not even trying that which i haven't heard and wouldn't understand why they would do that.

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