Imagine that I (Ronny Fernandez) were hired to publicly judge the bet proposed in the screenshot below. Would I by Jan 1st 2024 judge Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nick Davidov to be the winner?
If there is a large economic shock caused by GPT4 or some other large language model or similar, I will settle this market to Yes. If there is no such economic shock, I will settle this question to No.
In order to settle this question I will consider various things like: asking my Uber driver if they have heard of GPT4 or large language models, looking at the size of the LLM market, asking several of my friends how many times they used LLMs for work, did GDP grow an unusual amount in 2023, how about just in "knowledge work" sectors, etc. I will be taking a hollistic approach and using my best judgement to settle this market. In the case that things seem unclear, I will do my best to avoid settling this market to N/A and try to judge who was closer to correct.
I (Ronny Fernandez) will not be trading at all in this market.
EDIT:
I have been convinced by Rob Bensinger on twitter that I was being too non literal in determining the resolution criteria here. Because I think that the non literal version of the market is more interesting and useful, and because there is already a decent volume of trading on that market, I have decided to make a more literal version of the market and link it here:
https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/extremely-literal-judging-will-i-ro?referrer=RonnyFernandez
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 8:30 pm
Dec 25, 1:10pm: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.) → SPIRIT OF THE QUESTION JUDGING:
Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.)
1,000People are also trading
@Gurkenglas That would cause me to bail out immediately. I'm here because there's been no meaningful havoc and turmoil and mass suicide and rampant economic impact from LLMs yet, other than geeks chatting with it about recipes for whats in their fridge.
@EdwardKmett ...you're aware that in half an hour is merely the close date, while the resolution criteria are about what happens by Jan 1 2024?
@Gurkenglas My parsing of the question was that he'd be judging what he's say in 2024. Otherwise this is a really broken market.
@Gurkenglas This market doesn't make any sense to me if its closing now and is not resolvable for a year+. I was parsing it as him asking a hypothetical about the future that he'd resolve based on what his read on the world would be at close, but the dates here are all over the place. So I guess I'm going in long ~6.5k for damn near forever. I'm strapping in for my first long term unretrievable bet.
@EdwardKmett Some market creators use the closing date to define the deadline for the event that the market resolves on, and others just use it to limit when people can bet (which is the convention on e.g. Metaculus but not here), and this causes confusion sometimes, and I don't have a better solution than to constantly ask annoying questions like "is the end of 2023 defined by the question closing time or is it in a different time zone".
@StevenK (I'm making this comment to note that there was an edit, so that people don't have to reply saying "uh it's right there in the title")