Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
19
196
Ṁ1.5KṀ370
2040
30%
chance
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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI/ASI/Digial-Superintelligence to figure out why he was wrong predicting AI would destroy humanity.
Resolves yes if this happens by 2040.
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I'm curious how Eliezer et al interpret the anthropic issues with predictions like these. It's not as if he'll get to have the satisfaction of using AGI/ASI to prove why he was right, and there's more than zero branches (according to MWI followers like himself) where we survive regardless of who had the better argument.
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