EXTREMELY LITERAL JUDGING: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.)
Mini
13
1.5k
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
N/A

I have been convinced by Rob Bensinger on twitter that I was being too non literal in determining the resolution criteria for the original market. Because I think that non literal version of the market is more interesting and useful, and because there is already a decent volume of trading on that market, I have decided to make this more literal version of the market and link it to the original.

I will resolve this market to YES, if the absolute value of GDP growth in any quarter of 2023 is half as large as in the 2nd quarter of 2020, and that is plausibly atrributable (according to me) to the wide adoption of a LLM named 'GPT4' released by OpenAI.

Otherwise I will resolve this market to NO.

I (Ronny Fernandez) will not be trading in this market.

Link to original market:

https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/will-i-ronny-fernandez-think-that-e?referrer=RonnyFernandez

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 8:30 pm

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📢Resolved to N/A per CG (resolution criteria are vague/personal).

@RonnyFernandez Can you resolve, please?

“the absolute value of GDP growth (…) is half as large as in the 2nd quarter of 2020”

I think I share the confusion expressed in some reply branches like: https://twitter.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1607061644940656643. In Q2 2020, GDP moved significantly down, both in terms of quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons, and in both nominal and real terms, etc. Is any of these indicator types the right one? Would any “reasonable enough” indicator, like YoY real GDP moving 8% up (or is it down), be suitable? I also wonder if we should consider whether the quarter in question overlaps with a period after the release or a demo of GPT4 since the original tweet seems to imply that expectations alone may not yet be significantly influencing markets.

Don't you need to set this market to close in Jan 2024, not 2023?

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