I have been convinced by Rob Bensinger on twitter that I was being too non literal in determining the resolution criteria for the original market. Because I think that non literal version of the market is more interesting and useful, and because there is already a decent volume of trading on that market, I have decided to make this more literal version of the market and link it to the original.

I will resolve this market to YES, if the absolute value of GDP growth in any quarter of 2023 is half as large as in the 2nd quarter of 2020, and that is plausibly atrributable (according to me) to the wide adoption of a LLM named 'GPT4' released by OpenAI.

Otherwise I will resolve this market to NO.

I (Ronny Fernandez) will not be trading in this market.

Link to original market:

https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/will-i-ronny-fernandez-think-that-e?referrer=RonnyFernandez

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 8:30 pm