Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the company or dedicated segment that generates the highest United States revenue during the 2029 fiscal year (or the last completed fiscal year ending before January 1, 2030, if FY 2029 results are not published by June 1, 2030).

Resolution will be determined using the official audited annual financial reports (such as SEC Form 10-K filings) or official corporate investor disclosures. If an option's revenue is not broken out separately, the following guidelines will apply:

• Uber: Resolved using the United States geographic revenue in Uber’s 10-K. If US revenue is combined with Canada (e.g., "United States and Canada" / US&CAN segment), the combined US&CAN segment revenue will be used.

• Lyft: Resolved using total reported revenue in Lyft's 10-K (as its footprint is predominantly North American).

• Waymo: Resolved using Waymo's US revenue as reported by Alphabet Inc. If Waymo's specific revenue is not isolated from Alphabet's "Other Bets" segment, the market creator will use reliable, widely accepted third-party financial consensus or research database figures (e.g., Sacra, PitchBook, or Bloomberg). If no data is available, it will be treated as $0.

• Tesla Cybercab: Resolved using revenue specifically generated by Tesla's dedicated Cybercab vehicle sales and/or autonomous ride-hailing network in the United States. If Tesla does not break out Cybercab or autonomous ride-hailing revenues as a distinct line item in its 10-K or investor presentations, and no official figures are provided by Tesla management, this option will be treated as $0.

• Other: Anyone can add answers to this market. If another company or service is added and records a higher US revenue in the specified fiscal year than any of the default options, that option will resolve to YES.

If companies undergo mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, the revenue of the successor entity's corresponding service or segment will be used. In the event of a tie, the market will resolve proportionally among the tied options.

Background

As of 2026, the US ride-hailing and autonomous vehicle market is undergoing a rapid transition:

• Uber and Lyft remain the dominant players in terms of scale, with Uber generating over $52 billion globally in 2025 (more than half from the US and Canada) and Lyft recording $6.3 billion in revenue for 2025.

• Waymo has scaled significantly, reaching over 450,000 weekly paid rides across cities like San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin, with its annualized revenue run-rate approaching $350 million to $400 million.

• Tesla has entered the commercial robotaxi space, deploying its purpose-built, steering-wheel-free Cybercab in pilot markets such as Austin, Texas. Analysts project that the autonomous vehicle ride-hailing market could reach tens of billions of dollars by 2030, but whether autonomous networks can overtake traditional ride-hailing platforms in revenue by the end of the decade remains highly contested.

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