Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election?

100Ṁ154

2029

74%

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Under UK law there is no fixed date for the next General Election (GE). However the law does state that the next GE must be held before 15th of August 2029.

For the purposes of this question a full term will mean serving in government for more then 4 full years. Therefore if there is no GE before 4th of July 2028 then this question will resolve YES.

The Labour party took office on early July 2024. It took office with a very low voter share and grown to become incredibly unpopular with student labour party groups disaffiliting from the party.

With increasing tensions surrounding asylum speakers in hotels Nigel Farages reform is becoming more popular.

On the opposite end if the spectrum the deterioration of public service and rise in cost of living has motivated Sultana to firm a new party with Corbyn attracting over 800,000 sign ups.

With the pressure on the current Labour government increasing from both sides will this government be able to complete a full term in office before the next General election ?

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Full term doesn’t really make any sense in UK politics? If the election is called a few months before the last possible date (e.g. what Sunak did) would that count as a full term? To me it does, but it’s not the last possible date election can be called.

@JayDH Good point. For the purposes of this question I have defined a full term as more than 4 years. I'll re-phrase the question accordingly..

How are you defining a “full” term here? UK elections don’t operate on a fixed schedule and so there isn’t a clear target at which point this would be achieved.