![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FPontiMin%2Fc9815205f7f3.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will Labour form a 2 term government?
Basic
8
Ṁ1.8k2029
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Labour a very likely to win the July 2024 general election. But will they win the one after that?
Resolves YES if both (1) after the July 2024 there is a Labour government, and (2) the same is true of the general election after that.
Notes:
(a) if there is a minority government, if is the party of the PM that counts
(b) if there are multiple PMs in a parliament, it is the first one who counts, with the exception that it is a hung parliament and the sitting PM lasts less than 28 days after the general election (as happened in 2010 when Brown remained PM for 5 days after the GE).
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?
32% chance
Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
85% chance
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
79% chance
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
59% chance
What proportion of seats will Labour win in the next election for Parliament?
59% chance
How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?
The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years
36% chance
Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?
13% chance
2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will UK aid be at or above the 0.6% of GNI by the end of the Parliament?
Will Labour gain the necessary seats to form a government in the 2024 GE
98% chance