How would this resolve?

Not sure. May resolve N/A if no good way to resolve.

There’s no good way

Manifold poll perhaps?

I’m down with that. Haven’t conducted one of those before so any tips you have on how to do it or examples would be appreciated

It's one of the default question types you can create, and for this one it would probably be simplest to have it ask which option users think is most likely then resolve to the one that gets most votes after a couple weeks

Got it. So I’ll make a poll that closes the day of this bet and the results of that poll will answer the bet. Correct?

Sounds good 👍