[Futarchy] If I send 4096 mana to this user, will they double it and pass it on?
69%

See here for context on "double it and pass it on": https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it-d9q609ZP6R

I have to send 4096 Mana to someone before Oct 13, 2025, 1:00:46 AM ET, they then have to double it and pass it on. I want to choose someone who is predicted to double it, so who should it be?

Feel free to add any users EXCEPT 121, Tumbles, Orangey, Conflux, or existing chain links (bens, Quroe, strutheo, SimonWestlake, MylieSiegel, MaxE, Jasonb, Nat, Robincvgr). Any invalid options will be immediately N/Aed

I will send the mana shortly after this market closes. I will send the mana to the person who had the highest time-weighted average probability of passing it on over the final hour before closing to make my decision, in order to avoid last minute manipulation. The option for the user I sent the mana to resolves YES if they pass it on and NO otherwise, and all other options resolve N/A.

Related markets: https://manifold.markets/news/double-it-ep-2, derivative markets encouraged.

  • Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The final hour for calculating time-weighted averages is 10:21 AM - 11:21 AM CT on the market close date (October 12, 2025).

  • Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Answer submissions will be disabled approximately 12 hours before market close to prevent last-minute manipulation of the time-weighted average calculation.

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How many of these users have communicated interest?

@Robincvgr Will you enforce a cutoff time to when market answers can be added? There is an impetus to wait until the last feasible moment to add one's self to the market to keep trading liquidity low on it, then rail off cheap trades in the final hour.

There's also the corner case of deciding how to handle a market answer added during the final hour if no cutoff is enforced.

@Quroe Seems like a good idea. I'll turn off adding answers about 12 hours before close.

I'll halve it and pass it on if you like.

@Chumchulum "Halve it and run it back" sounds like a fun sequel. πŸ˜†

@Quroe Do it! To restore balance(s)! πŸ˜‰

@4fa The meme would get more and more targeted and niche. I'm not sure if it would have wide reaching appeal, but it still puts an impish smile on my face.

@Quroe As alluded, the theme could be restoration of balance rather than heroism and villainy.

@4fa It is a very cute idea. Hm...

@Quroe I participated in a halve it and keep it chain but @Joshua shamelessly broke the chain

@MaxE Source?

@Quroe my managrams log

this is the start of the chainhttps://manifold.markets/Xizted?tab=payments

@MaxE Oh! You had a subgame going on under the table. πŸ˜†

@Robincvgr Can you confirm the time frame of "the final hour" for time-weighted averages?

@Quroe The final hour before the market closes, 10:21AM - 11:21AM CT tomorrow.

I will not trade on this market to avoid any conflicts of interest with adjudicating the main market.

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