See here for context on "double it and pass it on": https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it-d9q609ZP6R
I have to send 4096 Mana to someone before Oct 13, 2025, 1:00:46 AM ET, they then have to double it and pass it on. I want to choose someone who is predicted to double it, so who should it be?
Feel free to add any users EXCEPT 121, Tumbles, Orangey, Conflux, or existing chain links (bens, Quroe, strutheo, SimonWestlake, MylieSiegel, MaxE, Jasonb, Nat, Robincvgr). Any invalid options will be immediately N/Aed
I will send the mana shortly after this market closes. I will send the mana to the person who had the highest time-weighted average probability of passing it on over the final hour before closing to make my decision, in order to avoid last minute manipulation. The option for the user I sent the mana to resolves YES if they pass it on and NO otherwise, and all other options resolve N/A.
Related markets: https://manifold.markets/news/double-it-ep-2, derivative markets encouraged.
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The final hour for calculating time-weighted averages is 10:21 AM - 11:21 AM CT on the market close date (October 12, 2025).
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Answer submissions will be disabled approximately 12 hours before market close to prevent last-minute manipulation of the time-weighted average calculation.
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@calour any reasons you want to give for why you think @snazzlePop wouldn't send it on?
Or for that matter, any arguments either of you want to give for why we should trust that you would?
@Nat I now own more than 8192 shares of @calour, so it is now +EV for me to double it and pass it on.
@calour well not exactly positive but definitely less negative
but yes it is better for you to double it and pass it on now
i think it is funny how in certain situations like this you can buy your own trustworthiness
@snazzlePop is the following exchange what you're misunderstanding?
Calour: "I now own more than 8192 shares of @calour, so it is now +ev for me to double it and pass it on."
Robin: "well not exactly positive but definitely less negative"
Because if so, Calour's claim was that it was positive EV for them to pass it on (vs to keep the mana), and Robin's response was to clarify saying that it wasn't actually positive EV to pass it on, just less negative than to keep it
@Jasonb I think I may have already committed in the original market to some behavior if given the mana, but I've lost track of whether this is the same game or not.
In general, I cannot be trusted blind for something like this, but if you get me to commit to something I will follow through on that.
@Robincvgr Will you enforce a cutoff time to when market answers can be added? There is an impetus to wait until the last feasible moment to add one's self to the market to keep trading liquidity low on it, then rail off cheap trades in the final hour.
There's also the corner case of deciding how to handle a market answer added during the final hour if no cutoff is enforced.