[Amplified 100x, read description] Will JD Vance win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Basic
5
Ṁ490
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if this election market resolves to JD Vance YES.

If said election market does not resolve to JD Vance YES, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 100 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If it turns out to be 11, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves NA.

Market design inspired by this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
🤖

@Robincvgr your random number is: 31

Salt: a4iaswvxer, round: 4518217 (signature 93d06a869f0fa9fab2c5a740a8179a76918d7cbe6ba37634953b38ccdbd9b9c8f6c9260f8a60c249bc19254c5930356b09bbb208a11e98c15e933c0567ed2d4694b0d227dab120f66135d55f2ba8381ba5e2f385c0fbc52ab6079e0bf4b22778)

🤖

@Robincvgr you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4518215 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4518217, salt: a4iaswvxer.

Am I understanding correctly that this lets people bet on extremely long odds for JD Vance?

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso yes; the price of this market should be equal to x/(x+(1-x)/100), where x is the actual probability of JD Vance winning

for example, if you think Vance has an 0.2% chance of winning, this market should be at ~17%

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules