[Amplified 100x, read description] Will JD Vance win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
[Amplified 100x, read description] Will JD Vance win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
5
100Ṁ490resolved Nov 7
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Resolves YES if this election market resolves to JD Vance YES.
If said election market does not resolve to JD Vance YES, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 100 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If it turns out to be 11, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves NA.
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@Robincvgr your random number is: 31
Salt: a4iaswvxer, round: 4518217 (signature 93d06a869f0fa9fab2c5a740a8179a76918d7cbe6ba37634953b38ccdbd9b9c8f6c9260f8a60c249bc19254c5930356b09bbb208a11e98c15e933c0567ed2d4694b0d227dab120f66135d55f2ba8381ba5e2f385c0fbc52ab6079e0bf4b22778)
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso yes; the price of this market should be equal to x/(x+(1-x)/100), where x is the actual probability of JD Vance winning
for example, if you think Vance has an 0.2% chance of winning, this market should be at ~17%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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