Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Manifold

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

20

1.2kṀ2112

2028

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

45%

Vance is not nominated

32%

Vance is nominated and loses

23%

Vance is nominated and wins

Market context

Republican Party

2028 US Presidential Election

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I'm a fan of this ternary market structure. It's basically "Given nomination, will he win?" but with a first-class "not nominated" result instead of the hackish n/a.

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