MANIFOLD
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21
Ṁ1.2kṀ2.3k
2028
45%
Vance is not nominated
33%
Vance is nominated and loses
22%
Vance is nominated and wins

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I'm a fan of this ternary market structure. It's basically "Given nomination, will he win?" but with a first-class "not nominated" result instead of the hackish n/a.

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