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MANIFOLD
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
27
แน€1.2kแน€4.1k
2028
55%
Vance is not nominated
25%
Vance is nominated and loses
20%
Vance is nominated and wins

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I'm a fan of this ternary market structure. It's basically "Given nomination, will he win?" but with a first-class "not nominated" result instead of the hackish n/a.