Will I come to believe that Eliezer Yudkowsky is substantially wrong about AGI being an X-risk?
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Ṁ190Ṁ430resolved May 6
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"Substantially wrong" does not include merely being wrong about timing. If I come to believe that, yes, AGI is still an X-risk, but we will have more time before we might all die than Eliezer thinks, this does not count as a substantive disagreement for the purposes of this market.
This is in the "Change My Mind" group - so feel free to debate me in the comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@harfe A P(doom) of 10% isn't significantly different from a P(doom) of 90%, to me. Both are unacceptably high.
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