Will any Effective Altruist be exposed as a neo-Nazi by the end of 2023?
26
364
แน€530
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
NO

"Effective altruist" means someone who donates significant amounts of money, or works directly and identifies as an EA, in a generally recognised EA cause area or in a plausibly effective cause area that arguably fulfils the EA criteria of being important, neglected and tractable. "Neo-Nazi" is only to be understood as someone who politically approves of Adolf Hitler and/or the NSDAP. It specifically does NOT mean someone who merely shares certain political or empirical beliefs with Hitler (for example, "smoking is bad", which is something that Hitler did believe).

Get แน€200 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€35
2แน€33
3แน€5
4แน€5
5แน€4
Sort by:

I think there was a group around More Right, a while back, where some of them are arguably far right. However, they weren't really EA, and those people aren't really EA now.

predicted NO

Do the donations have to be for EA cause areas?

predicted NO

@harfe Yes

predicted YES

Does Max Tegmark not count as exposed

predicted NO

@Julian No. The Max Tegmark scandal ended up with an apology for a mistake.

@Julian I think that while you might reasonably suspect (I do, to at least some degree) that Tegmark is lying about the extent of his sympathy for the anti-immigrant radical right in some broader sense, the evidence that he knew the people in question were literal Hitler fans, rather than just right-wing populists who hate immigrants, is fairly scant, let alone that Tegmark himself admires Hitler. In fact, according to Wikipedia, Tegmark's Dad was Jewish (though not citation is given.) If that's right, it's very unlikely he admires Hitler specifically, whatever his true political views more generally.

predicted YES

via longtermism, EA comes from a line of philosophies going back to a belief in eugenics. while surely many individuals will reject such an association for themselves, the reality is that there is a core to EA that, unfortunately, has an important piece of overlap with nazism. and with nazism on the rise these days... well I feel this market's conditions are inevitable.