The market will resolve YES if, by 30 June 2023, there is a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 that:

1. Is estimated to have caused >1 million cases globally.

2. The WHO does not classify as a sub-type of an existing variant (e.g. Omicron).

3. Our best estimate is that a 3-shot regimen of Pfizer's 2020 mRNA vaccine is <10% as effective at preventing death as it was against the Omicron B.1 strain — an effectiveness currently estimated at around 94%.

All 3 conditions will be evaluated by Rob Wiblin using common sense and considering nearby available evidence if necessary (e.g. the effect of Moderna's mRNA vaccine, effect on hospitalization, effect of 4 shots rather than 3, etc).

If uncertain, resolution may be briefly delayed while we wait on relevant research.

Jul 29, 6:45pm: Will there be a new widespread coronavirus variant by mid-2023 that renders Pfizer's original mRNA vaccine largely useless? → Will there be a new SARS-COV2 variant by mid-2023 against which 3 doses of Pfizer's BNT162b2 barely reduces death rates?