Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?
55
1kṀ9418Jan 1
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For this question, lockdown = stay-at-home orders.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will I test positive for COVID by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will China have COVID lockdowns before 2026?
10% chance
Will any EU country shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025?
33% chance
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
55% chance
Sort by:
@Eliza government mandated stay-at-home orders seems like what i was thinking. do you have a different definition?
@Stralor I have no idea, but the exact meaning of "lockdown" seems to not really be the same across all markets.
Here are some other markets with more thorough criteria if I search for 'lockdown':
/predyx_markets/will-a-major-event-occur-that-trigg
/brp/will-a-covid19-variant-cause-interm
If yours is specifically about stay-at-home, then maybe we can get that added to the description. These other ones include some variations on that theme.
@Eliza good points! there are some options in there I'd consider but for simplicity I'll do just stay-at-home
People are also trading
Related questions
Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will I test positive for COVID by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will China have COVID lockdowns before 2026?
10% chance
Will any EU country shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025?
33% chance
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
55% chance