When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?
2
1kṀ155
2050
April 25, 2040
37%
Before 2028
44%
Before 2032
54%
Before 2036
52%
Before 2042
56%
Before 2051

This market predicts the year when OpenAI will achieve its stated goal of creating "a factory that can produce a gigawatt of new AI infrastructure every week."

Context: In his blog post "Abundant Intelligence," (https://blog.samaltman.com/abundant-intelligence) Sam Altman wrote: "Our vision is simple: we want to create a factory that can produce a gigawatt of new AI infrastructure every week. The execution of this will be extremely difficult; it will take us years to get to this milestone and it will require innovation at every level of the stack, from chips to power to building to robotics."

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to the year when OpenAI officially announces or credible sources confirm that it has achieved the capability to produce 1 gigawatt of new AI infrastructure on a weekly basis. If this milestone is not achieved by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "After 2030 or Never."

Resolution Sources:

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