Before 2028, will OpenAI offer a model that can work on a task continuously for at least a week?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ1352027
66%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The model must able to do the work without any external intervention. An example counts is that if I ask a model to prove the Reimann Hypothesis and after a week it gives me an answer. An example that doesn't count is if over a course of a week I send the model a bunch of issues with my code and it fixes them all.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?
96% chance
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by February 15th?
55% chance
Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?
80% chance
Will OpenAI release a new GPT-5 model before March 31, 2026?
91% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
25% chance
Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?
43% chance
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
95% chance
Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?
82% chance
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?
17% chance
When will OpenAI release a robotics model?