This market resolves YES if, on or before 2026‑02‑29 (any time zone), Anthropic publishes an official statement acknowledging that Claude Opus 4.5’s output quality was degraded for some users or workloads compared to its intended baseline, due to a bug, configuration change, infrastructure issue, or similar. Otherwise NO
- Doesn't count short/transient error issues. Focused on larger scale degradation of results quality (empirically things have worsened statistically over the last month or so, see comments)
- Communication should come from a reputable company source (company blog, status page, press release, executive public comments, tweets from VP+). Speculation or unconfirmed "whistleblower" style leaks don't count.
some links:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeAI/comments/1qn5x8q/has_anyone_else_noticed_opus_45_quality_decline/
https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/15682
https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/20330
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46038081
https://x.com/SimonBalmain/status/2011612433996267760