Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the option that correctly encompasses the total count of calendar days in July 2026 during which an incident is reported on the official Anthropic status page.

Baseline Context: As of June 2026, out of the last 90 days, there are approximately 50 days with recorded incidents.

1. Scope of Systems

Only incidents affecting the following four core systems will be counted:

• claude.ai

• Claude Console (platform.claude.com)

• Claude API (api.anthropic.com)

• Claude Code

Incidents explicitly isolated only to "Claude for Government," "Claude Cowork," or any other system not listed above do not count. If an incident impacts both a core system and an excluded system, it counts.

2. Definition of an "Incident Day"

A calendar day is counted if, at any point during that day, the status page logs an active event affecting a core system categorized under any severity level, including but not limited to:

• Major Outage

• Partial Outage

• Elevated Errors

• Degraded Performance

• Degraded Service

• Downtime

Crucial Note on Color Coding: Any day with a documented incident history log matching the criteria above will be counted, even if the daily bubble remains "green" on the timeline. The presence of an incident log entry (including those marked "Investigating," "Identified," "Monitoring," or "Resolved"), or the presence of a "Related" section when hovering over the daily bubble, dictates the count—not the final visual color of the daily uptime bar.

Exclusion of June 2026 Model Suspensions: Days during which the only active incident log on the status page is the specific, verbatim notice: "We’ve suspended access to Claude Mythos 5 and Claude Fable 5" will be treated as clean days (i.e., days without incidents). However, if that notice is updated, or if any new, separate incident reports are published regarding these models or their return to service during July, those new events will count normally.

3. Handling Multi-Day Incidents

If an incident spans multiple calendar days, every calendar day during which the incident was active for any duration will be counted as an individual incident day.

4. Source and Timing of Resolution

• Source: https://status.claude.com/

• Resolution Time: The market will resolve no earlier than August 3, 2026, to allow Anthropic time to retroactively post or update any incident logs from the end of July.

• Fallback: If the status page is permanently inaccessible or changes URLs during July, any widely trusted, publicly archived snapshot (e.g., Wayback Machine) or official Anthropic developer communication outlining the July incident logs will be used to determine the final count.