Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on when global societal collapse occurs, defined as a loss of collective capacity to meet the basic needs of the majority of the population. Obviously in the case of actual collapse this market will be impossible to resolve but it's still interesting to see what the crowd vibe is for when such an event might occur. Traders should consider indicators such as widespread breakdown of supply chains, food systems, governance institutions, and basic services across multiple regions simultaneously.

Background

Current business-as-usual trajectory of global civilization is heading toward terminal decline of economic growth within the coming decade and at worst, could trigger societal collapse by around 2040, according to a 2020 analysis of the MIT "Limits to Growth" model. The Business as Usual scenario predicted that the world's economic growth would peak around the 2040s, then take a sharp downturn, along with the global population, food availability and natural resources. This imminent "collapse" wouldn't be the end of the human race, but rather a societal turning point that would see standards of living drop around the world for decades.

However, some of the more extreme warnings of civilizational collapse caused by climate change, such as a claim that civilization is highly likely to end by 2050, have attracted strong rebuttals from scientists. Research indicates that we can expect a halt in economic growth within the next two decades, though whether this constitutes collapse depends on societal response and adaptation.

Considerations

What distinguishes the more dramatic failures of human societies, seeming to deserve the term "collapse," from less dramatic long term decline is not widely agreed on. Scholars debate whether historical examples like the Maya civilization represent true collapse or transformation. Additionally, whether a society collapses depends on existing cultural, political, and economic structures in times of crisis - these structures can either help build resilience and facilitate positive adaptation, or undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence, and societal collapse.