Will the human civilization collapse before we become multi planetary species?

1kṀ2355

2100

26%

chance

ALL

What can cause and count as human civilization collapse;

AGI: Artificial intelligence could turn against human interests.
Ecological Collapse: Climate change could radically change Earth's populations.
Nuclear War
Global Pandemic
Widespread Economic Collapse

Self-sustaining communities beyond Earth, whether on other planets, moons, asteroids or in artificial space habitats will count as multi-planetary species status. These communities should be able to sustain themselves completely independent of Earth. A measure could be if Earth is annihilated those communities should be able to exist comfortably.

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Respectfully what is the point of this bet. We’d all be dead and no one would be left to collect or moderate the bets.

@AdamDyer Its not about winning or losing its about our perception of future of humanity. We all have our ideas of likelihood of things. But aggregated, you get a fuller picture. I think thats one important aspect of this platform.

Can we please avoid garbage low-content obviously AI generated text on Manifold 😭

@Devansh I provided a list of risks; and made AI fill in the descriptions. so yeah; sorry it is AI-generated. but not low-content. 5 risks listed are indeed the biggest threats to human civilization.

@Devansh here you go; shorter human input.

In event of human civilization collapse payout can be redeemed at any post office or bank on Alpha Centauri

@sjrl On the bright side; if it doesn’t collapse you can also redeem the payout on Alpha Centauri.

How do you define "multi-planetary species?"

@SimonFillat Multiplanetary is really a placeholder. It doesn't have to be on a planet. Its a human colony able to sustain itself without the need for anything from earth. There could be still trade, but if trade is ceased they should be able to recover from that without significant impact like widespread starvation etc.