Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2035?
7
103
แน€170
2035
4%
chance

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Jupiter, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Jupiter must occur within a distance of no more than 10 million kilometers from the planet.


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To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 10 million kilometers threshold from Jupiter. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 10 million kilometers threshold from Jupiter. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Jupiter.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jupiter_and_Europa_2020.tiff

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When you say "live human" you're excluding consciousness substrates other than biological brains, right?

predicts NO

@BrunoParga yes. This criteria also excludes humans that are dead on arrival

@RemNiFHfMN how about some form of "suspended animation"?

Also, is it required that the mission is intended to return the humans alive to the inner solar system?

predicts NO

@BrunoParga the human must be awake for at least 1 hour of the flyby and have a heart rate of at least 30bpm during this time

predicts NO

@RemNiFHfMN returning humans alive is not a requirement. Reaching the 10 million kilometer threshold with a live human is sufficient. If the human is in suspended animation (or asleep) when that threshold is crossed, they must be resuscitated (or woken up) for at least 1 hour while the spacecraft is below that distance threshold

@RemNiFHfMN thank you for the clarification โ€“ having clearly specified resolution criteria is always a good thing! I wouldn't have thought of the heart rate criterion, it's a particularly good catch.

predicts NO

@BrunoParga Have updated the criteria in response to your questions. Thanks for the input!