Will a human walk on Mercury before 2040?
Standard
14
Ṁ1053
2040
7%
chance

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mercury before January 1st 2040.

Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-c07a9e6b1dc2 (this question)

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-481094be1e26

Mercury orbit questions:

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-b0c572503bb2

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-91321e1429e9

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-f4436ca9677d

Solar system surface venture questions:

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-c07a9e6b1dc2 (this question)

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-f77ec20323dc

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-82852f7eae62

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-e0ab80586ff5

Solar system exploration questions:

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-b0c572503bb2

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-31e87dc6b88e

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-j

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-ad792ee08c79

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-771d244be93f

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p

Other questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958


To meet the criteria, the human must be awake for at least ten continuous minutes on the surface of Mercury outside of a spacecraft. The human may be wearing a pressure suit or similar device. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute. The safe return of the human is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of leaving the spacecraft to venture onto the Mercurian surface, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least 10 continuous minutes before returning to the spacecraft.

The human does not necessarily need to walk, and can use a wheelchair or some other form of mobility device to navigate the Mercurian surface. They must be outside of the spacecraft and with either their body or a pressure suit exposed to the Mercurian vacuum (or atmosphere if Mercury possesses one on this date) in order to fulfil the criteria of this question. If the human is wearing a pressure suit, then the volume of the human must occupy at minimum 30% of the volume of the pressure suit in order for it to count as a pressure suit and not a spacecraft/vehicle. Either the human's body or pressure suit must make contact with the Mercurian surface. If the human exits the craft and enters a space underneath the Mercurian surface, such as a cavern or an underground base, then this does not qualify as venturing out onto the Mercurian surface. In the case that the human is outside of the spacecraft without a pressure suit, then they must survive on the Mercurian surface for at least 10 continuous minutes and remain awake with a heartrate of at least 30bpm during that time.

The human venturing onto the Mercurian surface must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body, including those enabling the human to survive on the surface of Mercury without a pressure suit, is permissible within the context of this question. The human must also have a mass of less than 500kg (can be a cyborg but with some limits).

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