Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2040?
Standard
25
Ṁ1591
2040
8%
chance

Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2040, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator. This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people to and from Earth's orbit without the use of traditional rocket propulsion. The Space Elevator must be capable of regular operation and able to sustain continuous movement of payloads between Earth and space.

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Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Space_Elevator.png

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Im going all in with a no on this one. There will likely never be a space elevator. Let alone 2040. They are so hard and intricate. And can be destroyed so easily.

@FatihKurt but they'd be so pretty

predicts NO

@RemNiFHfMN They certainly will be. But thats not enough justification for building one. Maybe if our material science improves drastically until then.

@FatihKurt what if there's a misaligned AGI that pursues building a space elevator as an aesthetic goal

predicts NO

@RemNiFHfMN If we will have superintelligence without alignment, all bets are off. We can’t really predict anything about it.