Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the human species (Homo sapiens) becomes entirely extinct during or by the end of the calendar year 2600 CE (December 31, 2600, 23:59:59 UTC).

• "Extinct" is defined as zero living biological members of the species Homo sapiens surviving on Earth or anywhere off-world.

• If viable populations of biologically un-speciated Homo sapiens remain alive anywhere in the universe as of December 31, 2600, this market resolves to NO.

• Evolutionary divergence or digital/synthetic intelligence transitions: If human descendants exist but have been genetically modified or evolved to the point of being classified as a distinct post-human species, this market will resolve to YES only if pure-lineage biological Homo sapiens have ceased to exist.

• Practical resolution caveat: Because resolving this market requires observers in the year 2600, it functions primarily as a theoretical or long-horizon settlement market. If the prediction platform no longer exists or if human extinction makes verification impossible, the market reflects an unfalsifiable settlement paradox unless determined retroactively or maintained by autonomous infrastructure.

Background

The year 2600 became a notable benchmark in public discourse regarding existential risk following remarks by theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking at the Tencent WE Summit in Beijing in November 2017. Hawking warned that continuous population growth and unchecked energy consumption could render Earth an unlivable "fireball" within roughly 600 years (by approximately 2600 CE) if humanity fails to curb climate impact or establish sustainable off-world colonies.

Existential risk researchers (such as those at the Future of Humanity Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk) generally analyze human extinction risks across shorter horizons (such as the 21st century) through threats including engineered pandemics, unaligned artificial intelligence, runaway climate tipping points, and nuclear conflict. Extending out to 2600 introduces broader variables, including potential interstellar settlement, planetary terraforming, and post-human evolutionary branches.