Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 3000 (UTC), the biological species Homo sapiens becomes extinct, meaning there are zero surviving individuals of the species.

This market resolves to NO if a living population of biological Homo sapiens survives past January 1, 3000.

Edge Cases & Clarifications:

• Speciation and Transhumanism: If biological humans have completely transitioned, genetically diverged, or evolved into a new distinct species (speciation), or if humanity has transitioned entirely to digital/non-biological minds such that no biological Homo sapiens remain, this market will resolve to YES.

• Space Colonization: Human populations residing off-Earth (e.g., on Mars, space stations, or generation ships) still count as surviving Homo sapiens (resolving to NO), provided they remain biologically classified as such.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be based on the consensus of surviving scientific, academic, or global governing organizations (or their historical archives) at the time of resolution.

• Note on resolution paradox: In the event of total human extinction, the market conceptually resolves to YES, even if no infrastructure or traders remain to process the payout.

Background

Existential risk researchers study the threats that could lead to human extinction or the permanent collapse of human civilization. In his 2020 book The Precipice, Oxford philosopher Toby Ord estimated the probability of human extinction or the permanent collapse of human civilization within the next 100 years at approximately 1 in 6 (16.6%).

The primary drivers of existential risk are generally categorized into:

• Anthropogenic Risks: Unaligned artificial superintelligence, synthetic biology/engineered pandemics, nuclear warfare, and run-away ecological or climate collapse.

• Natural Risks: Supervolcanic eruptions, asteroid impacts, and stellar events (such as nearby gamma-ray bursts).

While natural existential risks have remained consistently low over millions of years, anthropogenic risks have escalated rapidly with technological acceleration, making the upcoming millennium a critical bottleneck for long-term human survival.