Background reading:
xAI, founded by Elon Musk in March 2023, is an American startup company focused on artificial intelligence (AI). Its stated goal is “to understand the true nature of the universe”. One of its immediate objectives is to create an AI that is way capable of advanced mathematical reasoning, something not found in current models.
On November 4, 2023, xAI unveiled Grok, an AI chatbot that is integrated with X. xAI has indicated that the bot will only be available to X's Premium+ subscribers when it is out of beta.
Here are some key points about xAI:
Ownership Structure:
xAI has adopted an unusual corporate structure as a benefit organization rather than a profit-seeking entity. This structure allows xAI to prioritize societal impact while paying less attention to shareholder obligations.
Investors in X Corp (Twitter), which is owned by Elon Musk, will own a quarter of xAI.
Relationship with Twitter:
xAI works closely with Twitter, now called X Corp., and Tesla, among other companies, to make progress toward its mission.
While xAI collaborates with Twitter, it is not a subsidiary of Twitter.
The market will resolve based on the valuation of xAI disclosed in the documentation related to any financing deal and compared to the valuation of OpenAI estimated to-date by a reputable source e.g. Pitchbook, Dealroom, Techcrunch.
Update 2026-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): xAI must be valued as an independent entity for the purposes of this market.
If xAI merges with or becomes part of another company (e.g., SpaceX), the resolution will be based on xAI's standalone valuation (the portion attributable to xAI's operations only), not the merged entity's total valuation
xAI's operations should be focused on AI/non-SpaceX activities
If most of a merged entity's valuation comes from non-xAI operations (like SpaceX), that portion will not count toward xAI's valuation for this market
Update 2026-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If xAI merges with another company, the resolution will rely on:
xAI's financials from public quarterly filings
Analyst reports to confirm xAI's standalone valuation
Spin-off valuations if xAI is separated from the merged entity
Acquisition bids that specifically value the xAI portion
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@traders - The market wording and my intention was that the valuation should reflect xAI as an independent entity.
The resolution should depend on the following:
Does xAI's operations (and derived revenue) now include launching rockets into space?
Or is xAI only focused on the non-SpaceX operations (and therefore revenue)?
Knowing that most of the merged entity's valuation comes from SpaceX, xAI's true valuation (the subject in question in this market) is a small subset of the merged entity and hence doe s not exceed OpenAI's valuation as of now. The valuation should remain to be seen by 2035.
@Anon99 so just to clarify, you're going to make a judgment call on what you think the valuation of the xAI portion of the combined entity is? I'm not sure how this will work 1, 3, 5 years down the line. If SpaceXAI starts launching rockets carrying AI satellites, what portion of that resulting revenue is "SpaceX" vs "xAI"? How do you make that decision?
@MattP xAI financials will be included in public quarterly filings, so we would know a lot about their numbers. We can rely on analyst reports to confirm valuation - things can become easier if xAI is spun off or a potential acquirer quotes a bid. There is plenty of time for that to possibly happen
i wouldn't want to position myself such that I had undue influence on or unfair insight into the approach Anon99 will take in resolving this question
@jim wouldn't you have way less undue influence if you asked them directly vs let them see the market and your position on it before deciding
@Anon99 does it include the valuation from the merges with spaceX + X? kinda seems against the spirit of the market but also maybe technically counts
@Bayesian I mean, if this resolves NO on a SpaceX/xAI merger where the new company (whatever it is called) is valued more than openAI, it's malpractice. If those two merge, the combined entity Is "Elon Musk's AI company" as the question says (even if it takes the SpaceX name or some new third name).
@SorenJ yes. Grammatically, the operative noun is "Elon Musk's AI Company" and the parenthetical is a clarification. If Elon Musk's (only) AI Company becomes known by a different name, that doesn't change the meaning of the sentence.
@MattP Grammaticaly the noun phrase is "Elon Musk's AI Company xAI." Paranthetical clarifications specify the exact noun that is being referenced. The question when written was referring to xAI.
@MattP I think it's not at all obvious that "Elon Musk's AI Company" would be an accurate description of the company post merger. It seems more likely that it would "Musk's Space Company, that does some AI stuff on the side".
@archvenison so by that logic, you're positing that after the merger, Elon Musk no longer has an "AI company"? (or even that "AI company (xAI)" no longer refers to any entity that still exists?)
Both those seem dubious to me - but even if true, should result in a resolution of N/A (because the question would no longer be coherent), not NO.
The only way this should resolve NO is if Elon Musk still has an AI company that is the subject of the question, but it is not worth more than OpenAI. Arguing that the merger invalidates the question is precisely that - arguing that the merger invalidates the question (i.e N/A resolution).
@MattP Yes I agree with “AI company (xAI)" no longer refers to any entity that still exists.”
Keep in mind Tesla also does AI stuff. Should this market have instantly resolved yes because Tesla’s market cap was larger at time of creation?
I agree it should N/A.
@MattP yeah basically if xAI gets folded into another larger company, I don’t think “Musk’s AI company” exists (and “Musk’s AI company (xAI) definitely doesn’t)
I think an N/A would be reasonable, since the spirit of the market becomes unknowable. But if we’re going on technicalities (or just really want to avoid N/As) then a nonexistent company clearly doesn’t exceed the value of one that exists.
@archvenison I think N/A is a reasonable resolution if @Anon99 agrees with y'all's interpretation. I think NO would be a pretty bad resolution (unless ofc it is determined that SpaceXAI or whatever we're calling it does not actually exceed OpenAI's valuation).
@MattP Its unlikely but not entirely improbable that OpenAI exceeds even the merged SpaceXAI in valuation, so this could stay open.