🏅 Top traders

@traders Thank you all for participating! This was one of the most fun PROP BET markets for me. I really appreciate so many of you helping add questions, and following actively!

Much thanks!

Special congratulations to @BURNTramenNoOdLeS @Weezing @ChristopherRandles @JonathanNankivell and @rayman2000 for finishing in the top5! This was not an easy predicton market at all!

@ramen question about resources: for this Will there be fewer than 50% draws across the whole tournament? (regular games only) -> NO (even if every game in the last round is decisive, it will still be a 50.5% draw rate) --> how were you able to calculate the win/loss/draw stats?

@Ram_N i counted the amount of drawn games up to round 12 then divided by 7 games.times 13 rounds for 46/91 which was 50.5%. it could've also been 7 drawn games in the last round which wouldve made it 53/91 which is something like 58%. 50.5%-58% is entirely above 50% so it can only resolve NO no matter how may decisive games there were in the last round

https://s2.chess-results.com/tnr1328218.aspx?lan=1&art=13&flag=30&SNode=S0 this site also shows how many draws but i didnt check them till after i calculated

Chess-Results Server Chess-results.com - Tata Steel Chess Tournament - Masters 2026

Chess-Results.com is a powerful and dedicated server only for chess-results. The tournament archive of chess-results.com contains more than 40.000 tournaments from around the world.

@BURNTramenNoOdLeS Fantastic!

You finished WAY AHEAD of all the other predictors! When are you sharing some of your best practices with the rest of us?! 😃

@Ram_N Just luck with big bets :)

@creator
Will any player win 3 or more games in a row? -> YES (Vincent just did)
Will 14-year-old Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus score 50% or more (6.5/13 points) in his Masters debut? -> YES (he will be on 50% even if he loses last round)
Will someone lose 15+ Elo rating at the end of the tournament? -> YES (Arjun cannot lose less than 15 ELO even with a win on the last round)

Will the winner of the Masters have a higher point total than the winner of the Challengers? -> NO (at best they can both get 9)
Will there be fewer than 50% draws across the whole tournament? (regular games only) -> NO (even if every game in the last round is decisive, it will still be a 50.5% draw rate)
Will Anish Giri finish with a higher amount of points than Jorden van Foreest? -> NO (they can at best only tie with the same amount of points)
Will Aravindh finish last or tied for last? -> NO (impossible)
Will Arjun finish with better score than Vincent? -> NO (impossible)
Will there be a tie for last place? -> NO (impossible)
Will Pragg finish with even or positive score? -> NO (impossible)

@Ram_N
Keymer won rounds 10 11 and 12
Erdogmus has 6.5 points with a round to spare
Prag on only 5 so cannot reach 6.5
no tie for last place 3 pts cannot catch 4.5
Aravindh not last
Arjun cannot finish with better score than Vincent

@ChristopherRandles Thank you. This helped me close a few yesterday. And I took care of the rest today. I really appreciate your and @BURNTramenNoOdLeS help! Really.

If any of you see any markets that I can resolve, please message here and I will do the needful.

In Chess terms: I was hoping that Sindarov would push harder, but he seems to have settled for a quick draw!

@Ram_N close date is too early

@Weezing I did this deliberately. I find that too many people are placing HUGE bets after the results are known. I want all of us to be rewarded for predicting ahead of time. So I decided to try this experiment -- to reward the early (and correct) predictions.

@traders Please let me know if you strongly disagree. If so, I will extend the deadline.

@Ram_N It's part of the fun that at the end some options swing wildly if they are particulary close or something surprising happens. But most of the options will move from 90% to 100% which is not a big deal.

I enjoy betting on these markets while watching games, so it's a bit weird that for those last 2 rounds I can't. I think it's better to treat it as a fun thing to do while watching rather than some super serious prediction contest.

@Weezing Okay, accepted. The contest is open now!

@Ram_N I totally understand what you are going for here! I think closing it just for the last two rounds feels weird. Why the last two? My gut instinct is that either you have to leave it open until the end, or you have to close it before the tournament. And I think the former is way more fun, even if it does mean there is some swooping-in after the results are known.

@Ram_N I generally think that markets moving to 99% or 1% when the answer becomes clear is good behaviour. Now if I look at this market after today’s round it will give me blatantly wrong estimates of the probability of certain events happening.

I also thinks it’s bad for markets to be closed but unresolved because it ties up funds. But that’s not a particularly big deal here since it’s only a few days

@rayman2000 and @archvenison Fair enough! I had chosen to close before the last two rounds even before the tournament had started. However, I agree with all of your points, esp the funds. Plus these market payoffs are self-correcting.

The people have spoken, and I bowing to this pressure, the contest is up and running now!! 😂

@Ram_N I agree with these guys. I log on in the morning to place bets while sipping my coffee and watching the online stream, and ending markets early is a bummer to me. Sometimes the chess markets will update in real time as critical games go back and forth, it's part of the fun here! Thanks for being bullied into reopening things!

I like seeing my profit crashing down (in real time!)

@Ram_N Is Turkey Asia or does only listed countried count?

@Weezing Any Asian country counts. Wikipedia lists Turkey as being in "West Asia" so it counts.

@Weezing Need clarification: Will someone win 3+ games and lose 3+ games?

Does this refer to the same player winning 3 and losing 3? Or did you mean that someone will lose three, and some other GM will win three? Thanks.

@Ram_N yes, same player. but Vincent already did it, so it can resolve YES.

Thank you @Weezing for so many new and interesting prop bet questions. I intend to bet on all of them, but I need to give it some thought!

Thank you @BURNTramenNoOdLeS, as always, for so many interesting questions. I've made my predictions for all of your questions!