This market refers to this event:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#Candidates_Tournament
An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise. If they do not participate, their option resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700. No additional players will be added. The market resolves 'Other' if a player not on this list wins the event.
Update 2025-11-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): No additional answer choices will be added to this market, even if new candidates are announced. The creator will not add players like Bluebaum, Sindarov, or Esipenko to preserve fairness for participants who already bet on 'Other'.
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@ColdMind I think this would be unfair to participants who already bet YES on 'other'. I made this market before all candidates were known.
@SentientTree Sindarov will be the highest rated of those 3. If Sindarov is at 5-6%, are you putting the other two under "Other" at 4-5%, to get to "Other" at 15%?
I'm saying Sindarov 5-6% that he makes candidates and wins it. That's like 60% that he makes it, 9% that he wins given that he makes it.
I'd break down the 15% as follows:
Sindarov 5-6%
Bluebaum 4-5%
Yakubboev 3-4%
Esipenko 1-2%
Shankland 1-2%
Martinez 0.5-1%
Donchenko <0.5%
@SentientTree There is also a chance that the Arjun/Wei winner ends up 4th in the WC and "Other" encompasses 4/8 candidates, but that is admittedly unlikely