MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
42
Ṁ10kṀ23k
Apr 16
27%
Fabiano Caruana
25%
Hikaru Nakamura
15%
Praggnanandhaa R
10%
Javokhir Sindarov
9%
Anish Giri
8%
Wei Yi
4%
Andrey Esipenko
3%
Matthias Blübaum

The Candidates Tournament is the most prestigious event behind the World Championship itself. It is 8 player double round robin tournament that determines the World Championship challenger in the next cycle.

Current player rankings and Elo scores are:

  • Hikaru Nakamura (#2) - 2810

  • Fabiano Caruana (#3) - 2795

  • Praggnanandhaa R (#6-8) - 2760

  • Anish Giri (#6-8) - 2760

  • Wei Yi (#9) - 2754

  • Javokhir Sindarov (#22) - 2726

  • Andrey Esipenko (#35) - 2695

  • Matthias Blübaum (#44) - 2678

However Candidates tournaments are usually pretty chaotic and often the biggest favorites do not win.

  • Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a player steps down before the tournament and is replaced, the market options will be updated to replace the old player with the new player.

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opened a Ṁ3,000 NO at 9% order

This is a very important chess market and deserves more traders!!!!

I have some big limit orders up and am happy to make more to provide liquidity if people want to make larger bets on any candidate.

How does this work if a player steps down before the tournament and is replaced? This happens in like 1 in 3 candidates tournaments?

@bens I will replace the old player with the new player. But I think it is very unlikely in this edition when there are no covid issues or magnus not wanting to participate.

@Weezing it happened in 4 of the last 8 candidates tournaments 🤷‍♂️

@bens 2 of those were Magnus being Magnus, 1 was Radjabov because it was March 2020, the other was Karjakin because of geopolitics. Who out of this field would withdraw?

question is valid though

there should be an other option in the poll

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