🏅 Top traders

The World Championship market: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-the-2026-world-chess-c-qty9l85QZc

Anish Giri can still win this tournament if Fabiano Caruana has the courage

buying Giri at 6% is ez money with these pairings...he will reach at least 30% before Candidates end for sure (I'm coping)

@diadematus 8/10 :(

@mr_mino I've placed a 3k YES limit order at 14% for Fabi, expiring in about 12 hours, if any traders would like more liquidity.

At this point might as well bet who will be second place 😢

https://manifold.markets/Wintersfan/who-will-get-second-place-in-the-20-59t6hl6S20

Here's how Matthias Blübaum can still win. Tournament is hardly over

Why fabi so low?yesterday the differencw was the same and it was almost even, fabi won, hes one point away from sindarov, there are 10 more games to go and sindarov is almost 3 times as much as fabi? Doesnt make sense

@EladEvenShani Caruana won as white against the lowest rated player, Sindarov won as black against the highest rated player. Also, 10% less time for things to change.

@archvenison And yesterday wasn't even, it was a bit over 30% vs a bit under 50%

https://www.chess.com/events/2026-fide-candidates-open/games

Andrey, if I put mana on you, you gota win ok?

someone do a Heimlich maneuver on Fabi asap

might be the American bias on this website but 56% for Fabi after 3 rounds is insane lol

@diadematus I don't think it's the American bias; he's just as high on real money markets. But I do think it's a bit of a frontrunner bias. On the flip side, Caruana is clearly the strongest player in the field and his opening preparation looks nonpareil

@diadematus Yea they dont know the magnitude of chokes Fabi is capable of :D

@diadematus I ran a simple Elo-based simulation and surprisingly it gives 54% for Caruana https://gist.github.com/Recursing/ef4693eb00ee03447d8975a638356b59 so I don't think Manifold is being crazy. It's not just that he's 2.5/3, he also won against the 2 of the higher rated players and won with black, giving him easier future pairings

Monte Carlo simulation of the FIDE Candidates 2026 tournament. Uses an empirically calibrated draw-margin model with strength-dependent draw rates, actual FIDE pairings with white/black assignments, and full tiebreak rules (rapid, blitz, knockout). Runs 1M simulations in ~5s on PyPy. No dependencies. Written by Claude Code

Monte Carlo simulation of the FIDE Candidates 2026 tournament. Uses an empirically calibrated draw-margin model with strength-dependent draw rates, actual FIDE pairings with white/black assignments, and full tiebreak rules (rapid, blitz, knockout). Runs 1M simulations in ~5s on PyPy. No dependencies. Written by Claude Code - candidates2026.py

@Weezing ELO Models are gonna look at the fact that Fabi has to face the bottom 4 seeds (by ELO) to close off the first half, while Sindarov has to face literally the top 4 seeds (Fabi, Hikaru, Anish, Wei Yi). Funnily enough though, three of those top 4 are on -1. But it has only been three rounds.

@BURNTramenNoOdLeS It was a joke. I am aware that Fabi has very good chances now and I know how these models work, I built one myself.

However weakness of these models is when Elo ratings do not match the correct strength of the players. Like Hikaru who hasn't played for a while and gained 10 rating points by farming 2000s. Maybe he is not that strong anymore. Or Sindarov who had very high performance rating in the past year, but was lower seed coming in etc.

@Weezing Oh I'm aware lol I just replied to the wrong person. Meant to reply to @Lorenzo for further contextualizing the ELO model's predictoin

well calibrated Naka

no idea who these people betting on Naka were

cmon guys he's the player with almost zero serious tournament experience last couple of years

@AleksandrM "The old Americans are the favorites" - Magnus Carlsen

@AleksandrM Well that was also true for his previous Candidates and he did pretty well.

@AleksandrM It's a weak field. Fabi is serious competition but he's a choker. Prag is strong, the rest is a joke