https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026
Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'Will Bluebaum have 14 draws' sub-question will not be resolved NO prematurely — if Bluebaum ties for first and plays tiebreak games where he draws, reaching 14 total draws is still mathematically possible. The creator will unresolve it if it is resolved early and that scenario occurs.
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@traders I thank all of you for participating and making this so much fun. Here are the Prop Bets for the WC: https://manifold.markets/Ram_N/chess-prop-bets-2026-world-chess-ch?r=UmFtX04 See you all
there
@traders I thank all of you for participating and making this so much fun. Here are the Prop Bets for the WC: https://manifold.markets/Ram_N/chess-prop-bets-2026-world-chess-ch?r=UmFtX04 See you all
there
@Ram_N Anish had a higher amount of points than Fabi from after Round 9 to the end of the tournament
@BURNTramenNoOdLeS Yes, of course! I have asked the admins in Discord to help me Unresolve this. I will correct this wrong. Much appreciate your patience, @BURNTramenNoOdLeS
@BURNTramenNoOdLeS I managed to get it re-opened and have resolved it correctly. Thank you again for your diligence!
The following markets should resolve to NO:
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
"Will the players under 30 years old score more wins than those above 30?": Players under 30 (Sindarov 6, Wei Yi 2, Pragg 1, Bluebaum 0, Esipenko 0) finished with 9 wins total. Players over 30 (Hikaru 1, Caruana 4, Giri 4) also finished with 9 wins total.
"Hikaru finishes top 4": Top 4 were, in order, Sindarov, Giri, Caruana, Wei Yi.
The following markets should resolve to YES:
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
"Will there be a player with more black wins than white wins?": Anish Giri.
"Will the winner go undefeated?": Sindarov won 6 and drew 8.
"Will there be a player with more white losses than black losses?": Esipenko lost with white 3 times and black 2 times.
"Someone will have -5 score at the end of the tournament": Esipenko.
@Ram_N
Will there be a player with more black wins than white wins? Giri is 2-1 on black wins, playing black today
@BURNTramenNoOdLeS If Anish doesn't beat Sindarov this round (Round 13), then this resolves YES. If he does, then NO.
@TomOqhPy
Round 1 English Opening: Agincourt Defense
Round 3 English Opening: Symmetrical, Three Knights
Round 6 English Opening: Symmetrical Variation
Is that sufficient?
The following markets should resolve to YES.
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"At least 7 different players will lose a game": See https://www.chess.com/events/2026-fide-candidates-open/results for standings. All the players bar Sindarov have lost a game.
"Will Anish Giri win a game during any round?": Giri beat Esipenko in Round 4 with the black pieces. See https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2026-open/round-4/97di6JjX/xbSQ7kmG.
"Will Hikaru fall below 2800 in live ratings at any moment during the 2026 Candidates?": After his loss to Sindarov in Round 5, Hikaru has dropped to a live rating of 2795.8 ELO. See 2700chess.com for live ratings.
"Will any player win 3 or more games in a row?": Sindarov has won in Rounds 3, 4, and 5. He's on an absolute tear.
"A checkmate occurs on the board": Caruana checkmated Bluebaum in Round 5. See https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2026-open/round-5/liBI9Brw/wuNBfSXX.
@BURNTramenNoOdLeS don't resolve this one -- it may be mathematically possible for him to make several draws and tie for first and play a series of tiebreaks where he also draws.
@Ram_N Please see my prior comment. I believe that mathematically Bluebaum could tie for first if he wins three games and draws the rest, meaning he finishes the classical portion with ten total draws. Then it would go to tiebreak games: Two rapid, then if there's still a tie two blitz, then if there's still a tie some other stuff. So, still mathematically possible for Bluebaum to draw 14 games!
Furthermore, as we saw with Magnus and Ian at World Blitz, we can't even discount the possibility of the rules simply being changed by fiat mid-tournament in order to create a supposedly impossible set of games and results. Due to this I just don't think you should resolve an answer such as this one until the tournament is actually over.
@marvingardens Doesn't the question ask if Bluebaum will have 14 draws? The answer to that is no, he's already lost a game.
Am I missing something subtle?
@Ram_N Why not let people continue trading?
To be clear, he can have 14 draws because he can tie for first with up to 10 draws, and then draw the 4+ tiebreak games that occur after that. So as-is this is a premature resolution, before taking into account any idea of the format changing.
@Ram_N they're just trolling. in the very low 1 in a million chance, bluebaum gets to tiebreakers and has 14 draws by the end of it, you can unresolve it and we can discuss whether that counts as YES resolution but just keep it resolved NO for now
@BURNTramenNoOdLeS i am literally not trolling. it's genuinely, according to the comment you just made, resolved before it's determined. why on earth is it better to leave it resolved and also leave the determination of criteria to after they've occurred. isn't that obviously worse