Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and the People's Republic of China are in a state of declared war or are engaged in an active, sustained military conflict (including direct kinetic combat between regular armed forces) by 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026.

Resolution will be based on official reports from the U.S. Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov/) and major, credible international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press). Minor skirmishes, cyber warfare, economic sanctions, or non-kinetic diplomatic tensions do not constitute a "war" for the purposes of this market. If no such state of war exists by the specified deadline, the market resolves to "No."

Background

The relationship between the United States and China remains complex, characterized by significant geopolitical competition. Key areas of contention include trade policies, technological dominance, human rights, and the status of Taiwan. While both nations maintain robust economic ties, military analysts frequently monitor the potential for escalation in the Indo-Pacific region. As of April 2026, there is no state of war between the two nations, and international efforts to manage bilateral tensions remain ongoing.

This description was generated by AI.