Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?
13
375Ṁ663
9999
98.1%
Days
90%
Weeks
83%
Fortnights
66%
Tumbles-related prediction markets
55%
Months
52%
Asses eaten (since market creation)
50%
U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)
50%
New loans taken (since this market's creation)
36%
Years
35%
Decades
34%
U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)
34%
Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)
24%
OpenAI models released to the public
24%
Manifests (2025's is 1st)
Resolved
YES
Hours

All loans are assumed late after their due date at 11:59:59pm PST.

Refer to this for the loan ledger: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

All market answers are relative to @Tumbles experiences. @Tumbles may choose not to answer any unprovable market answers if he wishes to.

We'll do our best to ensure these get resolved in ways that make the most sense. Expect some potential clerical challenges. Don't expect this market to be taken too seriously.

Add your own! We may N/A them at will. Be ready to accept responsibility of tracking it if you add it. Lack of resolution is not evidence that it hasn't happened yet -- asking for clarifications is encouraged.

  • Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): * Once the loan ledger for @Tumbles shows 0 loans:

    • All market answers that have not already met their conditions to resolve YES will resolve NO.

    • New loans taken by @Tumbles after this point (when the ledger first showed 0 loans) will not count towards this market.

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At time of market creation, this is the lineup.

I assume all answers resolve no after @Tumbles has 0 late loans?

@121 Correct. When the ledger reaches 0 loans, the remainder of market answers will resolve NO after they are confirmed to be correct to the best of our abilities.

If Tumbles takes on new loans after a moment in time where no loans remain on the books, those don't count.

@KJW_01294 Does this very page count as the 1st? Does each new added market answer on this market count?

@jcb Feel free to ping me when this event triggers. I don't stay on top of this metric on my own accord.

oh no, what have I gotten myself into 😭

I just edited "model releases" -> "models release to the public" as a slight clarification:

  • release means publicly accessible; can be restricted to paid users

  • multiple models launched at the same time count as separate releases

@jcb I suppose anybody can call it out and say it's ready to resolve. Collective responsibility, and all that. Thanks for the clarification, too.

At time of market creation, this is the lineup.

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