Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?
12
5kṀ38k
2028
3%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases. If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.

Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day. If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days. (These dates were calculated by Googling "42 months from Jan 20 2025" and "43 months from Jan 20 2025" and subtracting one day from the last date to still be considered the 42nd month.)

  • If Trump ceases to be as a person before being inaugurated POTUS or forfeits the office before being inaugurated POTUS, then market resolves N/A.

  • If Trump is inaugurated POTUS and stops being POTUS for any length of time during the market window or ceases to be as a person during the market window, then market resolves YES.

  • If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and then the previous criteria's operating conditions are met, except they occur before the market window, then market resolves NO.

  • If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and the office of POTUS ceases to be during the market window, then market resolves YES.

  • If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and then the previous criteria's operating conditions are met, except they occur before the market window, then market resolves NO.

  • If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and the nation of the United States of America ceases to be recognized by the United Nations during the market window, or if 1 or more States cecedes from the Union according to that State's legislature during the market window, then market resolves YES. (He can't be President of the United States if they aren't united.)

  • If Trump is inaugurated POTUS, and then the previous criteria's operating conditions are met, except they occur before the market window, then market resolves NO.

  • If Trump is somehow not inaugurated POTUS by end of day Jan 20 2026, then market resolves N/A.

  • If the office of POTUS somehow doesn't exist by Jan 21, 2025, then market resolves N/A. This criteria assumes no moment of discontinuity of the office of POTUS as it is transferred from one person to another.

  • All else, market resolves NO based on the state of the world at the end of the market window.

  • In the event of a reasonable corner case that is somehow not covered, I (or mods) reserve the right to resolve this market in best judgement of its spirit.

I am not allowed to bet in this market in case of extenuating circumstances requiring me to make an executive decision for resolution.


The Context:

The Bible, Revelation Chapter 13 (pick your favorite translation). https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2013&version=NKJV

The Book of Revelation is about the "End Times" prophecy in the Christian religion. One could interpret the first assassination attempt on Trump as Verse 3.

This market is in reference to Verse 5.

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