Bilt is a credit card company that has a monthly game show where they survey their users for their answers to various questions. Top scorers in the actual game get their next month's rent or mortgage payment covered by Bilt.
The top 3 answers reported on the actual game (not this prediction market) will resolve YES 100%, regardless of their order. The rest resolve NO.
The results post at 4pm ET, Jul 1, 2026. I was not one of the surveyed users this month. I do not know the correct answers, so I can trade on this market.
This is my referral link if you wish to sign up / apply and play the game yourself:
https://www.bilt.com/card?invite=QVCT7PCC
Click here for a dashboard of other Jul 1, 2026 Bilt Rent Free markets.
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,982 | |
| 2 | Ṁ827 | |
| 3 | Ṁ316 | |
| 4 | Ṁ167 | |
| 5 | Ṁ97 |
People are also trading
@Eternal I think the way they did it, "nothing" was a stand-in catch-all for any write-in answer that would characterize AI as an antagonist, aside from "lying" and "taking jobs".
@Eternal My hindsight speculation is that "nothing" is in fact a popular answer. People are mad about AI, broadly and in general, and so that's what they write. Plus also what Quroe said. The fact that it's gotten better in your view, by metrics you care about, and that I agree are basically objectively true, isn't actually that relevant to the question, I think. I had thought through most of this in advance, though I didn't write it out explicitly. I regret not betting up "nothing".
About 30 minutes left until close if anybody wants a short fuse market!
This market is 1 of a set of 3. https://manifold.markets/news/bilt-rent-free-jul-1-2026?r=UXVyb2U
I'd like to state that if you look back at all of the past Rent Free markets, we've consistently had huge upsets.
Just because something is aggressively near the top doesn't mean it's right.
Ask somebody else in the room you're in the prompt, give them no hints, and see what handful of answers they come up with. This erases the anchoring effect.
Why is "nothing" at 42%? Seems awfully high
@Eternal look at the slew of errors that come in coding - all the crashes in Microsoft, breaches, crashes, database deletions, etc. there absolutely has been progress made, but there’s certainly room to argue it hasn’t gotten crazy good at coding.
The other would be video image, which arguably is not in the last year as it’s been more of an extended one.
@Magnify well, yes. Models still fail, and we know that. But does the average person who is answering these questions know that? The media was making all this noise about Mythos and the US government banning it just a few days before the survey went that. That's going to be on their mind. So they'll probably say "coding" first, "image gen" second (because of nano banana) and something else for the 3rd one, but definitely not "nothing"
@Eternal I presume that’s what the anti-AI swathes among mostly the populist left and right would answer? Not sure what the survey demographic looks like.
@Dssc The demographics are Bilt cardholders. Mostly people who rent their homes; mostly Millennials.
I think back around Thanksgiving, they asked what an overrated Thanksgiving feast food was. Turkey was one of the top 3 answers.
@Eternal outside of this tech-bubble we exist in, the average person does not really use, nor give a single shit about AI. They mostly run into it via enshittified google results, garbage social media posts and memes of it failing to do the simplest of things.
Besides that, AI creep has stagnated, especially in the eyes of the public. Not nearly as much has happened in the last year that would have caught the eye of the public in a positive way.
Personally I don't think 'nothing' is going to be top three, but I can see how it could be.
@dgga There is also no guarantee that the red herring answers were even answers pulled from the questionnaire responses. They could have been adversarial additions.
I think coding should be higher. Currently, its at 63%
Assuming the people that are filling out the questionaire are "normies", they won't be following AI close enough to realize that it's gotten crazy good at music gen as and research. But you know what has made a lot of noise in the media and online? Fable. What's Fable good at? Vulnerability research + coding.
Therefore, coding should be higher.
@Eternal Availability bias is a very real thing to factor in. The questionnaires are write-in with a blank text field.
@Eternal Oh, another thing to factor in! The questionnaires are asked about halfway through the month. Fable might not have happened yet when the questionnaires went out.