What true reason will be revealed by September 1st 2022 for Abe's assassination?
10
460Ṁ644
resolved Sep 21
100%93%
Grudge against the Unification Church
1.9%Other
4%
the authorities were not lying OR september 1st isn't long enough for the truth to come out
1.8%
The assassin was motivated by a crazy theory with no basis in fact
https://nypost.com/2022/07/08/motive-revealed-in-assassination-of-japans-ex-pm-shinzo-abe/ HT https://manifold.markets/SG/what-is-the-most-plausible-motive-f NY Post writes: > In an interview with investigators, Yamagami allegedly admitted to plotting to kill Abe because he thought the ex-prime minister was connected to an organization that he bore a grudge against. > Police did not reveal the name of the organization or elaborate on what it believed in, adding it wasn’t clear if the group even existed. My nose suggests to me that the authorities are lying, that they'd like to make him seem a hair more random/crazy than he actually is, and they don't want to give airtime to the political criticisms he was making in his interrogation. I will resolve to "the authorities were not lying OR september 1st isn't long enough for the truth to come out" unless something leaks or they update the world, if you supply any variation on that theme I will not resolve to it.
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@JamesBabcock I picked this, the phrasing isn't totally ideal / par with wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Shinzo_Abe but it's close enough.

What happens if multiple responses are correct? Resolve PROB equally? Or only the first correct one that was proposed? Because right now it seems like the unification church one is more precise, and the not lying one was made earlier.
@BionicD0LPH1N Now that you mention it, I think this market will fail to capture the idea that the authorities may have been being vague in their initial report without lying. Adding more specificity doesn't have the same feel to it as walking back a prior lie, which the unification church hypothesis would look like. Re ambiguity between "the authorities were not lying" and some way of making what they said at first more specific, I'll resolve to the more specific thing
@Quinn Oh yeah silly me, fair enough
@BionicD0LPH1N because there's literally no way to tell the difference! Though I'm now realizing it makes me sound like a stubborn conspiracy theorist to do the absence-of-evidence move I'm implying.... so it goes.
@Quinn why not make this two different answers, it would be more informative?

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