Will Tetsuya Yamagami, Shinzo Abe's assassin, be free before the end of 2026?
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2
26
2026
43%
chance

Yamagami murdered Abe in July 2022, reportedly motivated by a grudge against the Moonies, the cult to which Yamigami's mother was pressured in to donating huge amounts of money to, leading to her eventual bankruptcy. As Abe was one of the few targets who was available in the public eye, Yamigami decided to attack him.

His trial has been marred with delays and controversy. Despite psychological assessment typically taking a few weeks to a few months, prosecutors have extended it for months. His pretrial hearing was cancelled after a 'suspicious object' was found. Speculatively, these delays could be due to prosecutors wanting to fall out of the public conscious, for fear of jury nullification due to the public expressing support for the reforms following Abe's assassination.

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This market will resolve YES immediately if there are credible reports that Yamagami is free before 23:55UTC 2026-12-31. 'Free' in this context simply means that he is no longer has a significant legal impedence on his movement, such as being in prison, or house arrest. A suspended sentence where he is still free to go outside would resolve to YES.

This market resolves NO if he has significant legal impedence on his movement. This market will remain open for the duration of this sentence if he is convicted in case of pardoning etc.. If he dies in custody, this market will resolve NO. If he escapes custody by illegal means, he still has significant legal impedence on his movement and this market would still resolve NO, even if he's not been found.

I may bet in this market.

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I am taking a small No position simply on the grounds that it seems wrong if he is free in 2026. I have not researched this in any more detail than reading the description.

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