The EA consensus acknowledges either the discovery of a "Cause X" or previously unknown "Crucial Consideration", EOY 2023
5
closes 2024
6%
chance

Resolves "YES" if any one of

- A cause is identified and climbs to 80000hours' top "highest" or "second highest" priorities list https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/ , and at least one commenter (likely discord or EA Forum, but not limited to strictly those two) remarks that it's time between first being discussed and reaching that prioritization status is surprisingly short

- I see a discord or forum conversation riffing on the pattern "Big EA wants us to care about X / thinks C is a game changer, but here's why I think it's not really cause X / not really crucial"

resolves "NO" if none of those happen by June 1st, 2023.

I am NOT requiring:

- that cause X / crucial consideration C is truly unknown at the time of this market being opened, i.e. it may have been on Nuño's Big List of Cause Candidates for over a year but in relative obscurity

- that a thought leader registering their individual opinion is sufficient (I think of 80k's website as more representative of a consensus than the opinions of thought leaders, which I recognize some may disagree about)

See: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/crucial-consideration , https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/cause-x

Related markets

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.18%
Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?17%
Eliciting Latent Knowledge considered "solved" by Paul Christiano, Mark Xu, or ARC by the end of 2023.7%
AI: Major scientific discovery by 203088%
Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 202371%
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 202864%
Neural Nets will generated at least 1 scientific breakthroughs or novel theorem by the end of 202546%
AI: Major event in 202369%
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 202537%
An AI forecaster calls me “well-calibrated” before the end of 202345%
ETH price by EoY 20231891
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems7%
In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list94%
By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 201527%
Video-Game AGI by 203277%
Puzzle AGI by 202833%
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 203097%
AI Leaderboard Ranking: AoC 202314
An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 202729%
WW3: by 203020%