Resolves "YES" if any one of
- A cause is identified and climbs to 80000hours' top "highest" or "second highest" priorities list https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/ , and at least one commenter (likely discord or EA Forum, but not limited to strictly those two) remarks that it's time between first being discussed and reaching that prioritization status is surprisingly short
- I see a discord or forum conversation riffing on the pattern "Big EA wants us to care about X / thinks C is a game changer, but here's why I think it's not really cause X / not really crucial"
resolves "NO" if none of those happen by June 1st, 2023.
I am NOT requiring:
- that cause X / crucial consideration C is truly unknown at the time of this market being opened, i.e. it may have been on Nuño's Big List of Cause Candidates for over a year but in relative obscurity
- that a thought leader registering their individual opinion is sufficient (I think of 80k's website as more representative of a consensus than the opinions of thought leaders, which I recognize some may disagree about)
See: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/crucial-consideration , https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/cause-x